II. THE GULF: ANOTHER FACE OF THE ARAB WORLD
The States on the Persian Gulf rim, which have been masters of their fate for less than 40 years, are an interesting case of accelerated development. In four decades they have made the transition from traditional societies to breathtaking modernity illustrated by futurist architecture, big, impressive cities and, especially, integration into the global economy.
However, the Gulf countries' social and politic situation is changing at a snail's pace. The idea of equality between human beings is still foreign and hard to apply. There is serious discrimination in the indigenous population. For example, Bahrain's discontented Shiite majority violently demonstrates every week against the poor infrastructure in their neighborhoods and exclusion from public jobs. In Kuwait, there is no comparison between the city-dwellers' luxurious living conditions and the Bedouins' poverty in outlying areas.
Everywhere, women have inferior legal and social status, although in practice they enjoy a freedom unimaginable in neighboring Saudi Arabia.
The situation of foreign workers is the focal point of the clash between ardently desired modernity and inherited archaic traditions. Foreign labor builds the infrastructure in these countries, where native-born people only account for 20% of the total population. What's more, in the United Arab Emirates, for example, 15% of the citizens are unemployed. Senior and midlevel managers form a class recalling the metics in ancient Athens. During the limited time of their residency, the living and working conditions of Asian immigrants, who work as domestics or laborers, are close to serfdom. Workers, victims of dishonest recruitment agencies, deprived of their passports and entirely subjected to the goodwill of their employers, who can have them expelled, end up revolting. In the construction industry in particular, the lack of security, which causes many deadly accidents, unhealthy housing and poor food have sparked demonstrations leading to harsh crackdowns, arrests, imprisonment and expulsions. Imposing those social conditions on men who are building museums and universities symbolizes the clash between future goals and present means.
It is very hard to make the transition from a feudal, patriarchal society to a representative democracy in just a few decades. Moreover, Kuwait is the only Gulf State with a parliament that has any real power and is elected by universal suffrage. Two women became members during the last elections. But the structural conflict between the monarchy, which appoints the prime minister, and the parliament, which cannot vote him out of office, combined with the prohibition of political parties, reduces the assembly to nothing more than a place of clashing special interests. The result is severe political instability and an immobility that sets Kuwait apart from the other Gulf States.
In 2005 the United Arab Emirates set up a 40-member consultative council, half of which is appointed and the other half elected by 6,689 great electors. This body, which is not very democratic, is locally considered a major advance, especially since Kuwait is viewed as an example of what not to do: representative democracy generates immobility, it is said.
A comparison between the situation of migrant workers in France or the United States and the plight of Pakistanis in the Emirates should be taken with a grain of salt. Between the start of the French Revolution and the establishment of truly universal suffrage in France, 157 years went by. The Gulf States have made substantial political and social strides in less than two generations. The West's condescending attitude towards these new States harms their evolution and mutually profitable relations.
Spectacular skyscrapers, huge hotels and fast highways must not necessarily be considered the markers of an authentic modernization. Architectural and urban planning choices and non-choices have had a devastating impact on the region's ecology in the past 20 years. Dubai is one of the most alarming examples. The construction of artificial islands in a closed sea like the Persian Gulf has destroyed the fragile ecosystems that assured the water's regeneration. The lack of a wastewater collection and processing network suitable for an area with extremely dense population density has led to massive discharges of polluted water into the sea. The brine that desalinization plants discharge also has devastating effects on the ecosystem, and will increase as the demand for drinking water rises. Moreover, buildings that are hundreds of meters tall consume a tremendous amount of energy. As the Gulf States prepare for a world without oil, they have opted for an ecologically disastrous urban development model requiring a considerable consumption of energy. Meanwhile, the IAEA says it takes approximately 15 years for an inexperienced country to accede to safe nuclear power. The Gulf States' architectural modernity is more a threat to their own future than the sign that they are keeping up with the contemporary world.
On the other hand, the Gulf States' ability to react to the global economy's ups and downs; setting aside of petrodollars in sovereign funds such as the United Arab Emirates' ADIA, capable of investing for the benefit of future generations; desire to become the "world's aviation hub", train young people in top universities and build prestigious museums that are beacons of world culture; and decision to diversify the economy and develop the research sector and cutting-edge technologies, attest to a visionary spirit.
The global financial and economic crisis has obviously affected the Gulf States: energy export revenues have fallen, the value of bank assets has melted and the construction and tourism industries have slowed down. These countries may be in the midst of a long recession. But the IMF says if the Middle East's oil-exporting countries are convinced that oil prices will be low for a long time, they will probably cut their spending to preserve their fiscal viability. In fact, the more these countries' banking systems were integrated into the international system before the crisis, the more they will suffer, like the Western countries. That is the case of Dubai. The downside of its open economy is permeability to the global crisis.
However, the examples of Abu Dhabi or Qatar show that the Gulf States have consolidated their position enough in less than 40 years to pursue their long-term modernization despite the downturn. Economic diversification is well under way: the share of hydrocarbons has dropped from 70% to 35% of GDP in 20 years. Steel, aluminum and petrochemicals form the core of their industrialization. Dubai has started creating world-class telecom, information technology, health and biotechnology research clusters. Everywhere--in Dubai of course, but also in Qatar or Bahrain--financial services are increasingly contributing to the production of wealth.
The intellectual and cultural components of the region's development plans must be considered, in particular by France, as one of the most promising aspects of the trends under way. Abu Dhabi or Qatar expect the same dynamism from France on those cooperation projects as they do for defense cooperation and the negotiation of major trade deals.
Unfortunately, unlike British or American institutions of higher learning, the international policies of French universities and grandes écoles are not dynamic or coordinated enough. Sometimes they cannot even manage to respond to requests from the emirs themselves, the Emir of Qatar told a rapporteur during an interview. The Saint-Cyr military academy did answer a request from Qatar and a project should be set up soon. Abu Dhabi has signed a contract with the Sorbonne including an exclusivity clause for the region, so Paris IV must really invest in the creation of a veritable department of literature, which so far seems stalled at the language course stage. Paris I, which is part of the Sorbonne, has not been able to set up a law school in Bahrain because of the exclusivity granted to Abu Dhabi. The project of training lawyers in the emirate should be revived so that the Sorbonne, even if it is subdivided into several institutions jealous of their autonomy, lives up to its universalistic outlook and beautiful name of university.
The Abu Dhabi Louvre Museum participates in the emirate's plan of opening up to the world. Without going into the controversy the project sparked in France or passing judgment on the players and their motives, the rapporteurs believe it is an honor for our country to be present in a group of museums that will display universal works of art in a key region in the East. Millions of Arabs and Asians will pass through Abu Dhabi and live there. Their ability to see works that France has collected and the emirate will acquire with the help of France-Museum can only foster the spread of culture and understanding between peoples.
However, the Gulf States face an uncertain future. Seven emirates have formed a federation dominated by the richest one, Abu Dhabi, which has just shown its sense of responsibility by propping up the imprudent Dubai in the international financial crisis. Bahrain, Qatar and Oman have kept their independence but forged alliances within the CCASG. All of them feel threatened by their powerful neighbor Iran. These countries' small sizes and populations, presence of Shiite minorities (who are in the majority in Bahrain) even though Sunnis hold power, and dependency on foreign managers and workers to administer them and create wealth are factors of weakness. The energy-consuming Western countries have an interest in participating in their military defense as well as in their modernization through cultural cooperation and institutional assistance.