Going nuclear in the Middle East

Foreign affairs committee

Information report on the situation in the Middle East mission following a mission (september22, 2008 to july 7, 2009)

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RECOMMENDATIONS
FOREWORD
CHAPTER I - OVERVIEW
- I. FAST-CHANGING SOCIETIES
  - A. THE DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION HAS STARTED EVERYWHERE AND ENDED NOWHERE
  - B. WOMEN BETWEEN ASCENSION AND CONSERVATISM
- II. THE RETURN OF RELIGION: A HARDENING IDENTITY
- III. THE GAP BETWEEN PEOPLES AND GOVERNMENTS
- IV. A DIFFICULT RELATIONSHIP WITH THE WEST
  - A. REJECTION OF THE UNITED STATES
  - B. HIGH EXPECTATIONS OF EUROPE
- V. ASSETS AND CONSTRAINTS
  - A. BOUNTIFUL ENERGY RESOURCES BUT NOT ENOUGH WATER
    - 1. Energy resources
    - 2. The water shortage
  - B. THE DIFFERENTIATED IMPACT OF THE ECONOMIC CRISIS
- VI. THE POLITICAL RISE OF SHIISM
CHAPTER II - A TWO-PRONGED CHALLENGE
- I. PEACE AND SECURITY FOR ALL: CREATING A PALESTINIAN STATE
- II. AVOIDING NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION IN THE MIDDLE EAST
CHAPTER III - WEAKNESSES
- I. ANARCHY IN YEMEN
  - A. THE SIX PLAGUES OF YEMEN
  - B. A SOURCE OF INSTABILITY THAT MUST BE HELPED AS SOON AS POSSIBLE
    - 1. A source of instability
    - 2. How can Yemen be helped?
- II. THE REBIRTH OF IRAQ
- III. CONFESSIONALISM IN LEBANON
CHAPTER IV - QUESTIONS
- I. WHAT IS HAPPENING WITH AL QAEDA?
  - A. A BRIEF HISTORICAL OUTLINE
  - B. THE END OF AL QAEDA?
- II. HOW WILL MUBARAK'S SUCCESSION TAKE PLACE IN EGYPT?
- III. WHITHER SYRIA?
  - A. SYRIA'S STRATEGY: REFORM ITS ECONOMY WHILE PRESERVING ITS UNITY
  - B. SYRIAN DIPLOMACY: HARD IN APPEARANCE, BALANCED IN REALITY
CHAPTER V - BRIGHT PROSPECTS FOR THE FUTURE
- I. SAUDI ARABIA'S CAUTIOUS MODERNIZATION
- II. THE GULF: ANOTHER FACE OF THE ARAB WORLD
CHAPTER VI - FRANCE AND EUROPE IN THE MIDDLE EAST
- I. FRANCE'S FOREIGN POLICY
- II. EUROPE'S PRESENCE IN THE MIDDLE EAST
  - A. EUROPE AND THE ARAB-ISRAELI CONFLICT
    - 1. The Venice Declaration
    - 2. The Berlin Declaration
  - B. TRANS-MEDITERRANEAN COOPERATION
CHAPTER VII - RECOMMENDATIONS
- I. WHAT FRAMEWORK FOR WHICH POLICY?
  - A. IS ACTIVE MIDDLE EAST DIPLOMACY NECESSARY?
  - B. WHAT IS THE BEST FRAMEWORK?
- II. THE STEPS TO TAKE
  - A. STRATEGIC PRINCIPLES
  - B. ACTIONS TO CARRY OUT
CONCLUSION
Reports before the committee on trips to the Middle East
- First trip - Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Qatar
  from October 19 to 30, 2008
  (report of January 12, 2009)
- Second trip - Syria, Lebanon, Israel, Palestine,
  January 18 to 31, 2009.
  (report of February 3, 2009)
- Fourth trip - Iraq, Jordan, Bahrain and Kuwait
  March 28 to April 6, 2009 and fifth trip - Kurdistan, Turkey, May 6 to 12, 2009 (report of May 13, 2009)
Presentation of the rapporteurs' conclusions
APPENDIX 1 - List of people met
APPENDIX 2 - Hamas Charter (1988)
APPENDIX 3 - Map of the Gaza Strip
APPENDIX 4 - Interview between the French Senate mission and
Khaled Meshaal - political leader of Hamas, Damascus, January 20, 2009 -
APPENDIX 5 - The Partition of Palestine
APPENDIX 6 - What is left of the West Bank
APPENDIX 7 - Israel's political system and declaration of independence
APPENDIX 8 - The Palestinian National Reconciliation Document

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Going nuclear in the Middle East

Foreign affairs committee

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