E. TAKE THE TEMPEST PROGRAMME INTO ACCOUNT
1. Originally: an aborted Franco-British cooperation project
Within the framework of the Lancaster House agreements in 2010, a letter of intent was signed in Paris on 16 February 2012 regarding a joint study of military drones with the United Kingdom. Thus, the FCAS (Future Combat Air System) project had officially been launched in 2014 : the Franco-British Brize Norton summit in January had planned Franco-British studies for a fighter drone, while a memorandum of understanding was signed at the Farnborough Air Show in July by Defence Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian and his counterpart Philip Hammond. The demonstrator was to be developed by Dassault Aviation and BAE Systems with assistance from Thales and Selex ES, Rolls-Royce and Safran. Finally, an initial contract for feasibility studies of €150 million had been passed in September 2014.
The works covered the system architecture, stealth, sensors, propulsion, data links, and weapons carriage in the hold. The project was also to rely on the programmes led by Dassault Aviation and BAE Systems, the nEUROn and the Taranis. The feasibility phase lasting two years should have resulted in a development phase and the production of a demonstrator of an armed drone for 2025.
First, however, the projects presented by the manufacturers were considered to be too expensive for a drone alone, particularly by the United Kingdom. Second, the announcement of Franco-German cooperation on the future aircraft after the Franco-German Defence Council on 13 July 2017 and the context around Brexit led the United Kingdom to announce in July 2018 its desire to begin its own combat aircraft project, the Tempest . This development also reflects a simultaneous change in perception in the two countries. At the start, the two countries' plan was to have a fighter drone after 2030/2040 that would supplement a renovated combat aircraft (a renovated Rafale and Typhoon). This pair was to be able to carry out all types of missions from low to high intensity, the drone being limited to ground strike and reconnaissance missions. Finally, it appeared necessary to develop an entirely new combat aircraft within a system of systems, an aircraft capable of taking over from the Eurofighter Typhoon and the Rafale .
Thus, a programme launched with funding comparable to that committed so far for the FCAS was cancelled.
2. The Tempest: an international cooperation project
While the two projects, FCAS and Tempest, have similar objectives, their methods are different. While the FCAS seeks to be "European", from 2018 the British were looking for partners within Europe as well as outside Europe; thus, it is more an international project under British leadership than a European project .
The United Kingdom signed agreements with Italy in 2018 and Sweden in 2019 for a joint study of the technologies of interest to the project but without a financial commitment , even though an international financial and capability platform ("Team Tempest" in Farnborough) has been set up with the participation of manufacturers and subcontractors. Additionally, the United Kingdom has approached Japan, Saudi Arabia and Turkey with a view to bringing in funds, not industrial cooperation. Finally, there is a link with the United States on part of the project via the Boeing Loyal Wingman drone, which could logically integrate with the Tempest. The concept study phase should end in late 2020 and give way to an "assessment phase" in 2021 to evaluate the concepts and architecture with regards to the desired performance. The decision to truly begin development may not come until 2025, even though the first delivery is planned for 2035 (5 years before the scheduled delivery of the FCAS) , the start of the Eurofighter's retirement, which seems extremely ambitious given the project's complexity .
3. Obvious political will, but an uncertain future
The political will to move forward on the Tempest seems real. The British see defence aviation as a sector that is fully mastered, at the heart of British skills, and represents several thousand jobs. In 2018, out of £14 billion of arms exports, aviation represented 95%. More generally, the United Kingdom has already undertaken significant efforts to modernise its defence system, notably by replacing its AWACS and purchasing nine Poseidons for anti-submarine warfare. The people who gave testimony also highlighted that preserving British skills in combat aviation is essential, even in light of new joint programmes with the Americans; these are the skills that, in their eyes, justify this cooperation .
However, with Brexit and the consequences of the coronavirus crisis, the budgetary context risks becoming difficult in the coming years for such a programme. The integrity review, an overall budget review that should be completed and in which defence aspects are a major element, has been delayed to late 2020, possibly 2021. The £2 billion available for the technological assessment phase before 2025 seems insufficient, making it even more necessary to seek out partners, but the British are also looking for a massive industrial return to their territory, which will make cooperation more difficult. Additionally, while the United Kingdom's close cooperation with the United States has positive aspects, for example the access to American satellite intelligence or the return of 15% on all the F35s sold around the world (this windfall alone allows the United Kingdom to buy its own F35s), it is also a dependency that the Americans could use to apply pressure to prevent the development of a potential competitor.
Finally, Sweden and Italy's cooperation on the Tempest seems much less developed at this stage than France, Germany and Spain's cooperation on the FCAS.
4. Is a reconciliation between the FCAS and the Tempest possible?
In this context, what are the relations between the FCAS and the Tempest? For now, the two projects do not intersect , and there is less and less reciprocal interest. From the former joint fighter drone project, there remain some studies on "technological bricks" for a few dozen million euros per year, but the momentum is not there.
Reconciliation will probably be made even more difficult if the British project succeeds in truly internationalising, in particular with the entry of Turkey and/or Saudi Arabia, possibly Japan. Additionally, negotiations for splitting tasks among the big industrial leaders within a single project, in particular Airbus, Dassault, BAE, Thales and Leonardo, would be very complex .
Therefore, it is highly possible that the two programmes will compete directly. This would be damaging to the construction of a European defence technological and industrial base. It is not certain that Europe can afford two competing future combat air systems with an export base that is necessarily smaller than if there were just one programme, especially if the economic consequences of the coronavirus crisis are fully realised.
In any case, the fact that a reconciliation seems very difficult today is all the more reason to equip the FCAS's demonstrator with a Safran engine, i.e. the Rafale's M88 , instead of the J200 engine.
Proposal : Take into account the Tempest's simultaneous existence as a competitor to the FCAS; the coexistence of the two programmes makes it more difficult to build the European defence technological and industrial base (EDTIB).