SENAT
Report n° 117 (2007-2008) by M. Roland COURTEAU, Senator (for the parliament office for the evaluation of scientific and technological choices) - Appendix to the minutes of the 7 December 2007 session
Disponible au format Acrobat (21 Moctets)
CONCLUSION
Immediately following the Sumatra tsunami, France committed itself to contributing to set up tsunami warning systems in the Indian Ocean, the Mediterranean/northeast Atlantic zone and the Caribbean.
Three years later, things have not turned out nearly as well as initially expected: insofar as La Réunion is principally threatened by regional and tele-tsunamis, with relatively long reaction times, the warning system set up is globally effective. Currently, Météo France receives the messages issued by PTWC and JMA, which it then transmits unaltered to the prefecture. However, contrary to the stated objectives during the definition of the Indian Ocean warning centre's mission in 2005, there is no scientific body carrying out complementary evaluations. In addition, the data transmitted by France to the international warning centres is limited due to the delay in installing and updating the tide gauges and seismic stations.
In the Mediterranean and the Caribbean, the situation is worrying because France remains completely powerless in the face of an eventual tsunami: France has no measuring devices for the detection of tsunamis, no specialized emergency plan has been finalized by the civil-protection services, and due to insufficient public awareness it is more than likely that the local populations would not know what to do in the event of a tsunami.
However, France's coasts could be struck by a tsunami at any time.
Tsunamis certainly represent a rare phenomenon; for example, a devastating tsunami is estimated to occur once every century in the Mediterranean basin, the last dating back to 1908 in the Straight of Messina and claiming 35,000 victims. Therefore, must we set up a tsunami warning system, given the relatively low chance of such an event occurring?
Following the Sumatra tsunami, the response of the international community, including France, was yes, we should. Indeed, all countries agreed that they could not remain inactive, when it is immediately possible to limit the dramatic consequences of a tsunami on the coastal populations. Therefore, we should respect the commitments we have made and set up the tsunami warning systems planned for each basin.
France's widely scattered territories and the vulnerability of each of its coasts in all four basins should lead it to play a driving role in the elaboration of these warning systems. Indeed, France must set up its own national warning system, in order to reduce the tsunami-vulnerability of its coastline. The setting up of warning systems at the international level must therefore be viewed as an opportunity, because their effectiveness should be reinforced by the multiplication of seismic and sea-level data, and it should also be possible to mutualize certain investment and operating costs between those countries interested in creating and maintaining such a system.
After two years of following a wait-and-see policy, France finally seems to be ready to assume its responsibilities. During the Lisbon session of the ICG/NEAMTWS in late November 2007, for the first time, France demonstrated its interest in housing a regional warning centre and set about creating a task team responsible for finalizing this future centre's structure and means, establishing a calendar for its creation and evaluating its costs. The results will be presented during the next meeting of the ICG/NEAMTWS in Greece in October 2008.
In parallel with this initiative, the government has decided to create a National Committee coordinated by the Department of the Sea, responsible for setting up a national monitoring and warning system for coastal submersions of oceanic origin.
Your rapporteur is pleased to see that the government is finally becoming aware of France's need to limit the tsunami-vulnerability of its coasts, by setting up a national warning system. In addition, the attribution of this project to the Department of the Sea should encourage the definition of a structure that takes into account the needs of each basin and the determination of the each partner's representatives.
Nevertheless, your rapporteur wonders about the financial means that the government is ready to dedicate to these two actions.
The absence of any financial commitment in the proposal made in Lisbon can be interpreted as the government's desire to question the other member states as to their eventual contributions before making its own proposals. However, it should be pointed out that the delays in setting up a warning system for the Mediterranean have resulted from this very same reluctance on the part of the concerned countries to commit themselves financially. If France believes that the security of its coasts demands the creation of such a system, it will have to accept to fund at least its initial version, without waiting for a commitment on the part of the other countries.
Furthermore, your rapporteur would like to repeat his worries concerning the integration of the tsunami warning system into a multi-risk approach that threatens to bog down the project.
Finally, your rapporteur would like to once again point out the need to accelerate the setting up of a warning system for the West Indies, due to the tsunami-vulnerability of these French départements . The project for a national monitoring and warning system must therefore cover not only metropolitan France, but also the overseas territories.
France's new-found enthusiasm for setting up a national tsunami-warning system should result in its rapid implementation. However, it is likely that the initial system prove imperfect, due to its dependency on data transmitted by foreign countries. Indeed, as long as the seismic and sea-level data gathered by the North African countries remains unavailable, the system will remain imperfect.
In order to verify that progress is made in setting up a tsunami warning system, your rapporteur proposes that this project be monitored. Immediately prior to the next meeting of the ICG/NEAMTWS in October 2008, the OPECST will hold public hearings to evaluate the progress made not only in setting up the national warning system, but also concerning the warning systems for the Mediterranean/northeast Atlantic, the Caribbean and the Indian Ocean.