Going nuclear in the Middle East

Foreign affairs committee

Information report on the situation in the Middle East mission following a mission (september22, 2008 to july 7, 2009)

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• RECOMMENDATIONS
  
• FOREWORD
  
• CHAPTER I - OVERVIEW
  
  • I. FAST-CHANGING SOCIETIES
    
    • A. THE DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION HAS STARTED EVERYWHERE AND ENDED NOWHERE
      
      • 1. The demographic transition in the Middle East
        
      • 2. Social upheavals
        
      • 3. Putting things into perspective
        
    • B. WOMEN BETWEEN ASCENSION AND CONSERVATISM
      
      • 1. Contradictory trends
        
      • 2. The schooling of girls
        
      • 3. Feminism and salafism
        
  • II. THE RETURN OF RELIGION: A HARDENING IDENTITY
    
    • A. THE REJECTION OF WESTERN NORMS
      
    • B. THREE GENERATIONS OF ISLAMIC FUNDAMENTALISM
      
    • C. JIHADISM AND SALAFISM
      
    • D. TOWARDS A MUSLIM MODERNITY?
      
  • III. THE GAP BETWEEN PEOPLES AND GOVERNMENTS
    
    • A. THE REGION'S DIVERSE POLITICAL PICTURE
      
    • B. DEMOCRACIES IN NAME ONLY
      
    • C. THE CRISIS OF POLITICAL LEGITIMACY
      
  • IV. A DIFFICULT RELATIONSHIP WITH THE WEST
    
    • A. REJECTION OF THE UNITED STATES
      
    • B. HIGH EXPECTATIONS OF EUROPE
      
  • V. ASSETS AND CONSTRAINTS
    
    • A. BOUNTIFUL ENERGY RESOURCES BUT NOT ENOUGH WATER
      
      • 1. Energy resources
        
      • 2. The water shortage
        
    • B. THE DIFFERENTIATED IMPACT OF THE ECONOMIC CRISIS
      
  • VI. THE POLITICAL RISE OF SHIISM
    
• CHAPTER II - A TWO-PRONGED CHALLENGE
  
  • I. PEACE AND SECURITY FOR ALL: CREATING A PALESTINIAN STATE
    
    • A. THE DIFFICULT RECONCILIATION BETWEEN PALESTINIANS
      
      • 1. The origins of the rift: the transformation of Hamas into a political movement
        
        • a) The Palestinian movement
          
          • 1. Fatah
            
          • 2. The Palestine Liberation Organization
            
          • 3. Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood
            
        • b) The roots of discord
          
        • c) Mahmoud Abbas's election in 2005
          
        • d) Hamas's victory in the legislative elections and the start of the Gaza blockade
          
        • e) The Mecca agreement and the national unity government
          
        • f) Hamas's seizure of power in Gaza
          
      • 2. The tragedy of Gaza and the armed struggle between Hamas and Fatah
        
        • a) The sequence of events
          
        • b) The scope of the tragedy
          
        • c) The toll of operation "Cast Lead"
          
        • d) What does Khaled Meshaal want?
          
      • 3. The present standstill
        
        • a) Three deadlocks
          
        • b) The inter-Palestinian negotiations in Cairo
          
    • B. ISRAEL'S ACCEPTANCE, WITH CONDITIONS, OF A PALESTINIAN STATE
      
      • 1. Israel's dilemma
        
        • a) The solution of a binational State
          
        • b) The two-State solution
          
      • 2. The lesser of two evils for Israel
        
        • a) Israel's long-term interests
          
        • b) The Israelis' choice
          
        • c) The feasibility of an agreement
          
      • 3. Stalling as strategy
        
        • a) Israel's security
          
        • b) The weakness of Israel's political system
          
        • c) The unshakeable relationship with the United States
          
          • 1. George W. Bush's policy
            
          • 2. New US policy
            
    • C. THE POSSIBILITY OF PEACE
      
      • 1. How to help reunify the Palestinian movement
        
      • 2. How can the Israelis be helped to understand that a viable Palestinian State is in their interests?
        
  • II. AVOIDING NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION IN THE MIDDLE EAST
    
    • A. IRAN'S FOREIGN POLICY: BETWEEN REVOLUTION AND NATIONALISM
      
      • 1. «Islamic» foreign policy and its failure: 1979-1989
        
        • a) Policy early in the Revolution
          
        • b) The failure to export the Revolution
          
      • 2. The return to nationalism and a regional power policy, 1989-2001
        
      • 3. Iran after September 11, 2001
        
      • 4. Ahmadinejad's verbal extremism
        
      • 5. Mir Hossein Moussavi's victory
        
    • B. IRAN'S NUCLEAR AMBITION
      
      • 1. Iran's nuclear program
        
        • a) A civilian or military program?
          
        • b) A nuclear weapon in how much time?
          
          • 1. Production of fissile material
            
          • 2. The availability of sufficient amounts of fissile material
            
          • 3. The development and vectorization of a nuclear payload
            
      • 2. What dangers would Iran's acquisition of a nuclear weapon present?
        
        • a) An Israeli attack on nuclear sites
          
        • b) Nuclear proliferation in the Middle East and the end of the NPT
          
    • C. HOW TO CONVINCE IRAN NOT TO ACQUIRE NUCLEAR WEAPONS AND AVOID A NUCLEAR ARMS RACE IN THE MIDDLE EAST
      
      • 1. Talks have not stopped Iran's nuclear program
        
      • 2. It is unlikely that force can stop Iran's nuclear program
        
      • 3. The only way left is sanctions
        
• CHAPTER III - WEAKNESSES
  
  • I. ANARCHY IN YEMEN
    
    • A. THE SIX PLAGUES OF YEMEN
      
      • 1. The absence of the State and a failed reunification
        
      • 2. Poor administration
        
      • 3. Lagging development
        
      • 4. A weak economy
        
      • 5. Insecurity
        
      • 6. Isolation from the other Gulf countries
        
    • B. A SOURCE OF INSTABILITY THAT MUST BE HELPED AS SOON AS POSSIBLE
      
      • 1. A source of instability
        
      • 2. How can Yemen be helped?
        
  • II. THE REBIRTH OF IRAQ
    
    • A. THE INVASION OF IRAQ: A TRAGIC MISTAKE
      
    • B. STABILIZATION: 2007-2009
      
      • 1. Stabilization of the security situation
        
      • 2. Political stabilization
        
      • 3. National stabilization
        
    • C. THE CONSEQUENCES OF THE AMERICAN WITHDRAWAL
      
    • D. WILL IRAQ REMAIN UNITED?
      
  • III. CONFESSIONALISM IN LEBANON
    
• CHAPTER IV - QUESTIONS
  
  • I. WHAT IS HAPPENING WITH AL QAEDA?
    
    • A. A BRIEF HISTORICAL OUTLINE
      
      • 1. The origins of Al Qaeda and its war aims
        
      • 2. Al Qaeda and the concept of jihad
        
      • 3. Jihadism and Islamic nationalism
        
    • B. THE END OF AL QAEDA?
      
      • 1. The mistakes of the "all-out war on terror"
        
      • 2. Al Qaeda's mutations
        
      • 3. Assessing the fight against Al Qaeda
        
  • II. HOW WILL MUBARAK'S SUCCESSION TAKE PLACE IN EGYPT?
    
    • A. A SOCIETY BESET BY DEEP TENSIONS
      
      • 1. A worsening economic situation
        
      • 2. No glimpse of change on the political horizon
        
      • 3. A diplomatic position that sparks popular anger and frustration
        
    • B. A BLOCKED SOCIETY
      
      • 1. Widespread unease
        
      • 2. The risk of terrorist attacks
        
    • C. A SOCIETY UNDER CONTROL AS PRESIDENT HOSNI MUBARAK'S SUCCESSION DRAWS NEAR
      
      • 1. A society under control
        
      • 2. Hosni Mubarak's succession
        
  • III. WHITHER SYRIA?
    
    • A. SYRIA'S STRATEGY: REFORM ITS ECONOMY WHILE PRESERVING ITS UNITY
      
    • B. SYRIAN DIPLOMACY: HARD IN APPEARANCE, BALANCED IN REALITY
      
• CHAPTER V - BRIGHT PROSPECTS FOR THE FUTURE
  
  • I. SAUDI ARABIA'S CAUTIOUS MODERNIZATION
    
    • A. THE INITIAL WEAKNESSES
      
    • B. THE CONSOLIDATION OF THE SAUDI REGIME
      
    • C. FUTURE PROSPECTS
      
  • II. THE GULF: ANOTHER FACE OF THE ARAB WORLD
    
• CHAPTER VI - FRANCE AND EUROPE IN THE MIDDLE EAST
  
  • I. FRANCE'S FOREIGN POLICY
    
    • A. THE ISRAELI-PALESTINIAN CONFLICT
      
    • B. FRENCH FOREIGN POLICY IN LEBANON, SYRIA AND EGYPT
      
    • C. FRENCH FOREIGN POLICY IN THE ARABIAN PENINSULA AND THE GULF
      
    • D. FRANCE'S FOREIGN POLICY TOWARDS IRAN AND IRAQ
      
  • II. EUROPE'S PRESENCE IN THE MIDDLE EAST
    
    • A. EUROPE AND THE ARAB-ISRAELI CONFLICT
      
      • 1. The Venice Declaration
        
      • 2. The Berlin Declaration
        
    • B. TRANS-MEDITERRANEAN COOPERATION
      
• CHAPTER VII - RECOMMENDATIONS
  
  • I. WHAT FRAMEWORK FOR WHICH POLICY?
    
    • A. IS ACTIVE MIDDLE EAST DIPLOMACY NECESSARY?
      
    • B. WHAT IS THE BEST FRAMEWORK?
      
  • II. THE STEPS TO TAKE
    
    • A. STRATEGIC PRINCIPLES
      
      • 1. Give the Israeli-Palestinian conflict priority
        
      • 2. Disconnect the treatment of conflicts from each other
        
      • 3. Target diplomatic actions
        
    • B. ACTIONS TO CARRY OUT
      
      • 1. Guarantee the Palestinians' future and the State of Israel's existence while consolidating peace with Syria and Lebanon
        
      • 2. Prevent the bomb and avoid bombing in Iran
        
      • 3. Save the Yemeni State from failure to keep it from becoming Al Qaeda's next base
        
      • 4. Help Iraq rebuild its State
        
• CONCLUSION
  
• Reports before the committee on trips to the Middle East
  
  • First trip - Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Abu Dhabi, Dubai, Qatar
    from October 19 to 30, 2008
    (report of January 12, 2009)
    
  • Second trip - Syria, Lebanon, Israel, Palestine,
    January 18 to 31, 2009.
    (report of February 3, 2009)
    
  • Fourth trip - Iraq, Jordan, Bahrain and Kuwait
    March 28 to April 6, 2009 and fifth trip - Kurdistan, Turkey, May 6 to 12, 2009 (report of May 13, 2009)
    
• Presentation of the rapporteurs' conclusions
  
• APPENDIX 1 - List of people met
  
• APPENDIX 2 - Hamas Charter (1988)
  
• APPENDIX 3 - Map of the Gaza Strip
  
• APPENDIX 4 - Interview between the French Senate mission and
  Khaled Meshaal - political leader of Hamas, Damascus, January 20, 2009 -
  
• APPENDIX 5 - The Partition of Palestine
  
• APPENDIX 6 - What is left of the West Bank
  
• APPENDIX 7 - Israel's political system and declaration of independence
  
• APPENDIX 8 - The Palestinian National Reconciliation Document